The Piano Player in the Brothel: Occupations at Risk in a Changing World
Inspired by Tom Wolfe’s 1981 metaphor, this post explores occupations projected to face significant declines by 2033 and how AI (artificial intelligence) could disrupt even more jobs, including programming.
5 min read
“The Piano Player in the Brothel”
In 1981, Tom Wolfe quipped that being a journalist was like being "the piano player in a brothel"—a role devalued and misunderstood. Over 40 years later, Wolfe’s metaphor resonates beyond journalism, reflecting the uncertainty faced by many professions today. From cashiers to programmers, the rapid pace of technological change and economic shifts has devalued once-secure occupations.
This post examines jobs projected to see the steepest declines by 2033, based on data published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in August 2024, and how AI (artificial intelligence) is transforming the workforce.
Declining Occupations
Job decline refers to a significant reduction in the demand for specific occupations, often driven by automation, economic changes, or evolving industry needs. By 2033, the following U.S. jobs are expected to experience the largest losses (BLS data):
- Cashiers (-353,100 jobs): Replaced by self-checkouts and e-commerce.
- Customer Service Reps (-148,800): Supplanted by AI chatbots.
- Office Clerks (-147,500): Streamlined by automation.
- Fast Food Cooks (-93,700): Automated cooking equipment is on the rise.
- Retail Supervisors (-90,500): E-commerce is reshaping retail.
- Bookkeeping Clerks (-83,900): Software is outpacing human clerks.
- Shipping Clerks (-64,400): Warehousing technology continues to advance.
- Tellers (-51,400): Online banking dominates.
- Data Entry Clerks (-41,000): Automated data processing is prevailing.
Visualizing the Decline
To better understand the scale of these changes, the graph below highlights the projected U.S. job losses for various occupations by 2033.
Caption: Projected decline in jobs (number of positions lost) for various occupations by 2033. Graph generated with GPT-4o based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, August 2024.
AI (Artificial Intelligence) as a Game Changer
AI (artificial intelligence) is not only automating repetitive tasks but also threatening roles once considered secure:
- Programming: LLM-based code generators are automating basic coding tasks, raising questions about the future of junior developer roles.
- Legal Analysts: Automated contract review tools are gaining traction.
- Creatives: Generative AI is reshaping writing, art, and music creation.
- Diagnostics: AI systems are challenging radiologists and pathologists.
- Teaching: Adaptive AI tutors are transforming education.
While these technologies bring efficiency, they also require adaptability and reskilling to stay competitive in evolving industries.
Facing the Challenges Ahead
AI and automation are rapidly transforming industries, making Tom Wolfe’s 1981 metaphor increasingly relevant. The decline of traditional roles presents significant challenges, but it also creates opportunities for growth and reinvention. Thriving in this new landscape will require adaptability, strategic planning, and ongoing learning.
These changes demand proactive thinking and a willingness to evolve. How are these trends affecting your industry? Are there unique factors in your region that influence the impact? Share your thoughts and experiences below!
Stay tuned for our next post, where we’ll explore the jobs most impacted by AI.
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